Flash Flood Safety: Immediately Implementable Precautions
Recent flash flooding along the Guadalupe River in the Travis and Kerr counties of Texas has already claimed 120 lives, while three persons remain unaccounted for.[1,8] A significant portion of those lost were campers and staff at Camp Mystic, an all-girls Christian camp located on the banks of the Guadalupe River.
News coverage has been extensive, with Federal, state, and local authorities each blaming the other for the casualties of the July 4th flash floods.
The death toll from this event is horrifying and tragic. As a parent, I can not imagine how I would react were my child to have lost their life in this way.
CNN correspondent Pamela Brown recounted an interview with
three survivors from one of the two Camp Mystic cabins closest to the
Guadalupe River.[2] Ms. Brown recounted how
the campers discovered an
inch of water in the cabin. She reported that the older girl went for
instructions, returning with a staff member who instructed everyone
to remain in place.
The girls were reported to have
escaped through
a window after witnessing Camp Director Richard Dick
Eastland’s
vehicle being washed away by rising waters as he attempted to reach
a nearby cabin. The other cabin's occupants perished in the
flooding. Following their own evacuation, they
discovered that multiple campers were missng and unaccounted for.
Hearing this was an an eerie echo of the 2001 World Trade Center
attack, where initial instructions were to remain in place.
Nearby, the Presbyterian Ma-Ranch Assembly took note of the rising Guadalupe River and the National Weather system warning radio broadcasts. They immediately evacuated those staying near the river to higher ground. The evacuation was efficient and everyone relocated to higher ground in good order with no casualties.[3]
We owe it to the memory of those lost to do far better. Doing
far better
is not measured by the scale of government expenditures.
Doing better is measured in lives not lost. Common sense is needed.
Government action is not the point. Whether one s for or against government involvement, emergency preparation must be done. If not by government at some level, we owe ourselves and our children safety.
Media attention has focused on the predictable brawl between and among various government levels and organizations attempting to identify who is responsible. Scapegoats may be emotionally satisfying, but the hunt for scdapegoats does nothing does nothing to preserve lives in the future.
Kerr County probably does require better flood warning systems. Top-down, county, or municipal warning system are worthwhile, but not a panacea, Far more lives can be protected and saved from future episodes by more basic, on-the-ground preparedness. However, a camp housing scores or hundreds of people does need an audible site alarm.
In my consulting practice, I do a fair amount of travel. The amount varies. While I have not experienced a major emergency, I have had friends and acquaintances who have experienced emergencies while traveling. My late father’s former colleague and wife went on a second honeymoon to Las Vegas. They were staying at the MGM Grand Hotel and Casino when a major fire broke out. Their young children were orphaned.
When my family went on a short cruise to celebrate my parents’ Golden Anniversary, we had a muster drill the first evening. The Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) regulations, established following the 1914 Titanic foundering, mandate adequate lifeboats and muster drills.[4]
Office and other buildings are required to have evacuation placards identifying egress routes and exits. I have encountered such signage in offices, hospitals, and hotels. Buildings also have Floor Captains, volunteers who are trained to organize evacuations, in the event of an emergency.[5] This is simple, well-understood, and in many cases, required safety planning.
From that starting point, what can camps, campgrounds, and even individuals in vulnerable areas do ensure safety when an emergency occurs? How do we prevent future tragedies?
It should go without saying that people should not build living facilities within 100-150 year flood zones. Reserve those spaces for park land, fields, and other non-life endangering uses. Sleeping accommodations situated within flash flood vulnerable locations are hazardous. Interestingly, Camp Mercy’s cabins were classified within a vulnerable area and were reclassified following an appeal.[6]
What about facilities within flood zones? What can be done to make these facilities less likely to result in mass casualties?
First, compounds housing significant numbers of people should have a clearly audible emergency siren that can signal unambiguous alerts: fire, flood, tornado, or cabin leaders meeting. If the alarm goes off, everyone follows the appropriate plan. It is no different than a school fire alarm. Everyone takes the pre-specified action immediately. At Camp Mercy, over an hour elapsed before evacuation was ordered. The Guadalupe River rose 30 feet in approximately 45 minutes.[7] Escape routes that are feasible when a river starts to overflow its banks may not be passable when there is two feet of flowing water to traverse.
Cell phones and walkie talkies are fine for coordination, but are not
appropriate for alarms. Alarms are unambiguous, and the first moments of
an emergency are the most critical. Incident respondors speak of
golden mimnutes
where actions disproportionately impact outcomes.
with water rising close to one foot per minute, a safe escape route
becomes impassible in minutes.
The survivor interview implies that staff and counselors on the scene did not believe that they had the authority to initiate an evacuation. The counselors on the scene should have a defined chain of command, with both the guidelines and the authority to evacuate at their discretion. e.g., flood water jeopardizing the designated evacuation route. There should be no requirement for higher management approval. Which counselor(s) are assigned overnight to a cabin is a safety question not unlike flight attendant staffing on commercial airliners. It must be clear to all who is in charge if an emergency occurs. If camp management does not trust a counselor’s judgement on this question, that counselor should not be in that position.
What supervision is appropriate for what age group? Should pre-teens, or for that matter, early teens, be left to their own devices overnight? In college-level dormitories, upper class Resident Advisors are domiciled in dormitories to provide first-line response in emergencies. On airliners, flight attendants are present to ensure passenger safety in an emergency. Customer service is secondary. In a camp environment, counselors are present to ensure camper safety in emergencies. Water safety is also similar. One would not consider letting campers swim without appropriate lifeguards and related precautions. Enough counselors are needed to ensure a safe evacuation.
Proper placarding is essential. Buildings should have placards with instructions to pre-surveyed evacuation route maps, including compass headings together with an evacuation checklist. There may not be cell coverage, but GPS-enabled mobile phones can receive GPS signals and convert the GPS data to compass headings. In the dark that data will save lives.
Each vulnerable structure should be equipped with a tether of sufficient length to reach higher ground. There should be a pre-fitted anchor points on both ends. In an emergency evacuation, an appropriate person, e.g., the junior counselor, attaches the tether to cabin anchor point, then leaves to attach the other end of the tether to the destination anchor point. Evacuees then evacuate while holding the tether. The senior counselor is last out. Their responsibility is to ensure that everyone is evacuated.
Why evacuate along a tether? People can become disoriented at night. Even more so during a storm. The tether is a safe path to follow in the dark, whether there is water on the ground or not.
Each cabin should have one and possibly two Go
bags containing
emergency supplies, e.g., whistles, emergency rescue blankets, disposable
ponchos, first aid supplies, and potable water. If an evacuation occurs,
these supplies go with the evacuees. Go
bags should also have
carabiner attachments so they can be clipped onto the tether during an
evacuation.
Lastly, drill, drill, drill. Repetition is clarity. These procedures need to be practiced multiple times, particularly with young children. Evacuation Practice need not be ghoulish. It can be a competition among different cabins as to which cabin gets out fastest or in best order. If you can master playing softball, volleyball, or other common summer camp activities, you can learn evacuation procedures.
These requirements do not require state or federal regulation. Local fire
officials can inspect and certify. Insurance carriers can require
compliance by writing compliance into their coverage requirements and
corresponding rates. Safety precautions reduce insurance risk. There will
be claims following the July 4th event. Assembling Go
bags is an
unfamiliar task for many camps. Insurance carriers can arrange for
appropriate supply packages. Carriers can put their logos on packaging
and count part of the package cost as advertising.
Organizations, e.g., religious establishments and umbrella groups, should have standards for programs they endorse. Advertising for programs that do not meet preparation standards should not be accepted by organization publications or events.
Our children are our future. Our goal as parents and as a society should be to safeguard our children from risks and hazards within our control.
[1] | DailyGeo (2027, July 10) United States Texas Flood Planning Failures |
[2] | Pamela Brown (2027, July 11) Pamela Brown shares harrowing tales of survival from kids at Camp Mystic |
[3] | Adrian Sainz (2025, July 6) Quick action by one Texas summer camp leads to timely evacuations ahead of deadly flood |
[4] | International Maritime Organization (1974, November 1) International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS), 1974 |
[5] | The University of Texas at San Antonio (2025) Administration & Operations: Floor Captain Program |
[6] | Ryan Foley and Christopher Keller (2025, July 12) FEMA removed dozens of Camp Mystic buildings from 100-year flood map before expansion, records show |
[7] | Dug Begley (2025, July 10) How the Guadalupe River grew into the destroyer it became in the July 4 floods, by the numbers |
[8] | Dalia Faheid and Michelle Watson (2025, July 20) Texas officials revise number of people missing in Kerr County following catastrophic flooding down to 3 |
How the Guadalupe River grew into the destroyer it became in the July 4 floods, by the numbersHouston Chronicle https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-weather/article/kerr-flood-guadalupe-river-20764739.php Retrieved on July 18, 2025
Pamela Brown shares harrowing tales of survival from kids at Camp MysticCNN Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/11/us/video/camp-mystic-survivor-stories-pamela-brown-ebof-digvid on July 18, 2025
In the dark, amid screams, a Camp Mystic counselor had 16 girls and one headlampRetrieved from https://www.ksat.com/news/ksat-investigates/2025/07/10/director-who-helped-bring-codered-to-kerr-county-says-leadership-lost-sight-of-tools-value/ on July 18, 2025
United States Texas Flood Planning FailuresRetrieved from https://us10.campaign-archive.com/?u=023a4ebf81fd06583f67b9f62&id=abe1b34eee on July 18, 2025
Texas officials revise number of people missing in Kerr County following catastrophic flooding down to 3CNN Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/19/us/kerr-county-texas-floods-missing on July 20, 2025
FEMA removed dozens of Camp Mystic buildings from 100-year flood map before expansion, records showAssociated Press Retrieved from https://apnews.com/article/texas-flood-camp-mystic-map-records-investigation-e12bee8d5f88301363861ca12c19b929 on July 18, 2025
International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS), 1974Retrieved from https://www.imo.org/en/about/conventions/pages/international-convention-for-the-safety-of-life-at-sea-(solas),-1974.aspx on July 18, 2025
Texas floods: 133 dead as report claims Camp Mystic leader received flood warning hour before disasterIndependent Retrieved from https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/texas-floods-death-toll-trump-fema-missing-latest-updates-b2787892.html on July 18, 2025
Texas camp leader waited over an hour after flood warning to evacuateThe Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/14/texas-floods-girls-camp-evacuation-delay on July 18, 2025
Texas inspectors approved Camp Mystic’s disaster plan 2 days before deadly flood, records showAssociated Press published by KWTX https://www.kwtx.com/2025/07/09/texas-inspectors-approved-camp-mystics-disaster-plan-2-days-before-deadly-flood-records-show-2/ Retrieved on July 18, 2025
The Texas way: why the most disaster-prone US state is so allergic to preparing for disastershttps://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/13/texas-disaster-weather-preparations-us
Expert cautions on rebuilding within Guadalupe River floodplainTexas Public Radio\ Retrieved from https://www.tpr.org/news/2025-07-09/expert-cautions-on-rebuilding-within-guadalupe-river-floodplain on July 18, 2025
Quick action by one Texas summer camp leads to timely evacuations ahead of deadly floodAssociated Press published by KWTX https://www.kwtx.com/2025/07/07/quick-action-by-one-texas-summer-camp-leads-timely-evacuations-ahead-deadly-flood/ Retrieved on July 18, 2025
Texas flooding death toll rises; new flood watch in effectUSA Today Retrieved from
New data reveals FEMA missed major flood risks at Camp MysticNPR published by Texas Public Radio Retrieved from https://www.tpr.org/news/2025-07-09/new-data-reveals-fema-missed-major-flood-risks-at-camp-mystic on July 18, 2025
Administration & Operations: Floor Captain ProgramRetrieved from https://www.utsa.edu/ba-administration-operations/services/administrative-services/business-continuity-emergency-management/floor-captain-program.html on July 18, 2025
Downed Weather Balloons and Missing Gauges: What Went Wrong With the Central Texas FloodsTexas Monthly Retrieved from https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/what-went-wrong-texas-floods/ on July 18, 2025